How is Kerry doing?

By Sam Felder on October 18, 2004 3:32 PM | | Comments (0)

With headlines from USA Today and MSNBC declaring Bush momentum, many are getting scared. Is the President really pulling ahead?

USA Today relies heavily on a Gallup poll that shows Bush with an 8-point lead despite a full summer of 1 to 3 point leads. The only way to explain a move from 3 to 8 points is that Gallup is now projecting that 89 percent of registered Bush supporters will vote but only 81 percent of registered Kerry supporters will vote. This unrealistic assessment not only skews their data but is controlling the news cycle at the beginning of the week.

What gets left our of this spin is the data of other major national polls and the reality in the states. John Zogby has the candidates tied at 45 to 45 and Newsweek agrees calling their data "Too Close To Call." However, the internal data of the Newsweek poll are incredibly encouraging.

  1. Independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40.
  2. First-time voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 21, 57-36.
  3. Early voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43.
  4. Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 50-40, and seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 15, 54-39.

The importance of early voters cannot be overstated. As many as 30% of all voters will cast early ballots this year and the advantage that Kerry/Edwards holds among this group will allow them to focus more tactically in the coming weeks.

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Sam Felder is a web designer and occasional writer in Los Angeles, CA.

Born in Washington, DC, Sam and his family moved to Peoria, IL, where he grew up and went to school. He returned to DC in 2003 and left for the west coast in late 2005.

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