All The Difference
In what could make all the difference in this close election, the New York Times took time today to check in on the effectiveness of the oft and early talked about voter registration drives.
From the moment Ed Gillespie announced the giant voter bus, Reggie the Registration Rig, the Republicans would be driving around the country to NASCAR events and state fairs, many wondered if this bid to attack the Democrats where they are traditionally strongest would pay off.
What so concerns Republicans about voter registration is that trend data shows that high turnout models usually favor Democrats. The idea behind a Republican GOTV campaign that reaches out to new voters is that perhaps, for the first and last time, it will validate their thesis that elections can be won solely on the backs of the Religious Right and its affinity groups.
The other advantage to putting big and early money into a voter drive from a Republican perspective is that it forces the Democrats to defend their home turf. Voter registration is the bread and butter of winning elections for Democrats in a tight spot. By forcing the DNC and the Kerry campaign to respond with their own voter mobilization programs, months after Republican foot soldiers hit the ground, they would not be able to make up the difference.
Or at least that was the idea.
It turns out that the Democratic voter registration campaign has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in Florida and Ohio, a surge that, according to The New York Times report, for exceeds the efforts of the Republicans.
By focusing on low-income and minority areas in Ohio the Democrats have been able to increase voter registrations by 250 percent over the same period in the 2000 election cycle. Registration in Republican areas has increased by a mere 25 percent. Comparable numbers exist in Florida.
With state by state polls staying mostly within margin of error for the last few weeks these new, and virtually unpollable, voters are enough to make all the difference.
In addition to being unpollable these potential voters have a bad history of actually showing up on election day. What might be different this year is the amount of money being put into reminding these new voters about election day, transporting them to polling places, and ensuring the presence of election monitors at key polling stations.
In 2002 the Republicans proved successful at using a 72-hour strategy to turn voters out in key races. Perhaps in this election the number of on-the-ground volunteers will help turn the tide.
We likely will not know until late into the night on November 2.
Who is this guy?
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